The next section of our outcrossing plan is where we defined our preferred methods and guidelines for the outcrossing itself and the progeny of that outcross.
Below you'll find another excerpt from the plan we constructed. As we're in progress on our first outcross as we speak, this is our draft and we may find it necessary to revise it as we learn from this first effort.
It is understood that, at any time, if positive results are not forthcoming from any cross, or the negatives outweigh the positives, that the cross will simply not progress any farther. If it is possible to salvage a single breeding dog that has the diversity and positive traits ISSA is seeking, and not the negative ones, that dog may be retained in the program; but, in general, there is no obligation for the ISSA to continue to utilize the progeny of an outcross which just isn't working well for the Shiloh breed.
At this time, Breeders in the ISSA are making an effort to utilize as many different studs as possible. The UC-Davis study has shown us that some of our studs carry more diverse alleles or haplotypes which make them compatible with a large number of females. We would expect these studs to be used slightly more, in order to preserve that genetic diversity. It is the job of the ISSA Breed Wardens to assess a stud's current number of breeding offspring and to suggest that more and different stud dogs be utilized for the good of the gene pool. Right now the ISSA has chosen to make no firm rulings on this point, believing that it is better for the future of the breed to remain flexible.
Repeat breedings are generally not encouraged in ISSA but neither are they banned, especially if the breeder did not get what they were seeking from the first match--for example, they were seeking a stud dog but there were no Breed-Quality boys in the litter. As we continually attempt to educate our breeders on the importance of switching things up, we see most breeders seeking to utilize different mates for their girls. We believe that this education is preferable to imposing rules on the breeders. If it is felt that a breeder is utilizing a given combination to excess, the Breed Wardens reserve the right to refuse the breeding.
The maximum number of litters for a female is somewhat set by our registry rules, which forbid a female to be bred before the age of 20 months and cap her age to whelp her last litter at no more than 6 years of age. The maximum litters out of a single female then tops out at five. In Europe it is much lower, sometimes only one, on occasion two to three out of a single female.
That said, it is our opinion that it is not the number of litters produced, but instead the number of breeding offspring, that is of highest impact on the ISSA gene pool. The primary reason for this is the large amount of offspring produced in the USA and Canada that are spayed and neutered when they are sold as pets, but we have also seen valuable breeding dogs be lost to the pool via accident or changed family circumstances. Because of this, ISSA does not seek to limit the number of breedings or litters allowed, but to rather keep an eye on the number of dogs out of a given parent who are granted a breeding certificate; and the loss of a breeding animal from a given line may then be rectified by offspring from a later litter.
Our COI cap is currently set at 17.5% for a 30-generation COI. However, our UC-Davis study has brought to light that many of our highest COI dogs are carrying valuable diversity, and that the reality of the genetic landscape is very different from what our COI estimates were telling us. Therefore, though we will continue to run and to cap COI for every litter, the ISSA understands that we may need to raise our cap if the UC-Davis analysis shows that the dogs are significantly unrelated compared to the COI (which is, after all, only an estimate).
We will, however, attempt to preserve the COI cap in the majority of breedings, understanding that COI is not only an estimate of relatedness, but also an expression of the possibility that traits may come forward unexpectedly out of the breed's past.
ISSA has decided that utilizing an outcross stud dog with a Shiloh female to be determined by the Board and Wardens will be the optimal way to accomplish this first infusion of new blood.
If we were to buy a stud, we would need to wait for him to mature, and pass testing, and hope that he matured with the traits we needed. Using a stud, we know he has already passed various health testing, and we can choose an animal with the virtues we are looking for and have a good idea of his faults as well.
Cooperation with another breed and splitting offspring may also be a good choice in the future, and we will assess that should an opportunity arise.
An Outcross Committee consisting of two members from each region (USA, Canada, and Europe) is appointed to research and present writeups on various candidate breeds to the Board. In addition, Breeders and Club members are welcome to put forward their own suggestions, always considering the priorities the ISSA has outlined for the particular outcross (referencing the Outcrossing Checklist).
After a potentially suitable candidate or candidates has been identified and discussed as a possible option by the Board, the candidate breed or dog is presented to the ISSA Breeders group for questions and feedback. The ISSA understands that only with the understanding and support of the majority of Breeders can an outcross be successful; a cross can't help the gene pool if no one will use it!
After Breeder feedback, a page is prepared to present to the Club members on the potential outcross, with merits and faults clearly defined. The ISSA recognizes the importance of Club support for any outcross, as Club members are an important part of educating the public about our breed initiatives, and may also wish to assist the ISSA by owning and health testing a first-generation pup.
Only after feedback has been given by both Breeders and Club members will the Board vote on the outcross; majority vote will carry.
The ISSA has determined that both sexes should be utilized. In the F1 generation, ideally two females and one male should be identified as potential breeding animals, with one or two pups held in reserve in case the first choices do not turn out to be suitable upon maturity. UC-Davis diversity testing must be run on all pups, and an effort made to keep those pups with the best diversity as well as the best temperament and structure in the gene pool.
As outlined above, the Board shall make the final selection via voting after all feedback is heard and questions answered from the breeders and Club members. The F1 pups shall be owned by the buyers who purchase them; however, the ISSA will cover the cost of all health testing for these first generation pups except for hips and elbows, which will be the responsibility of the owner as it is with all ISSA Shiloh pups.
All F1 dogs must complete all health testing normally mandated for breeding animals. The Club will cover the cost of DNA diversity testing for all pups; DNA testing for Degenerative Myelopathy; Holter testing; heart auscultation; eye testing (the first test for the entire F1 litter, plus a second test for any dogs moving forward for breeding); and the DNA test for Coat color: Piebald. The owner will handle the cost of hip and elbow x-rays. In addition, owners must send photo updates to the breeder who will forward them to the Board and Wardens and ensure they are entered into the Dog Update forms for the Registry. The photos should be taken at 3 months and 6 months.
At the age of one year, all pups must complete ISSA adult temperament testing (or equivalent as is normally mandated for breeding dogs). A final set of photos must be taken and submitted, as well as a hands-on assessment done by a Breed Warden, or by a qualified representative if a Warden is not available.
After the 12 months temperament and assessment results and hip/elbow testing results are in, the final choices will be made regarding which dogs are to be used for breeding. The decision will be based on:
This list is not in priority order; an official priority has not been defined, but in general the ISSA is looking for solid diversity and temperament, good health, and solid structure. We understand that "breed type" is not necessarily present in F1 offspring but will make an effort to choose the dogs to breed that possess the fewest divergences from our breed type.
The ISSA at this time has not chosen a committee to handle this important work, seeking instead to directly involve the Breed Wardens and Board in the process.
The Shiloh is an American rare breed and not currently recognized by the FCI, so this is not an option.
The ISSA is planning for only three Breed Quality pups (with two backups) to move forward out of the first generation. Two of the three will stay in Europe for sure; one may come to the USA. For these pups to mature, be assessed, and to breed will take on average two years. Thus we would expect our second (F2) generation to be born in roughly 2020.
We want this outcross to spread very slowly initially, so it is our goal to have only 2-3 breeding pups from each of the three F1 dogs move forward in the F2 generation, resulting in four to six useable F2 dogs in Europe, and two to three usable F2 dogs in North America--a total of between six and nine F2 pups, only around 7% of our total current gene pool assuming all pass testing. These pups will be 75% Shiloh Shepherd, 25% outcross blood.
The best (most genetically diverse, stable, and healthiest dogs with the type closest to Shiloh) of these F2 pups will in turn be bred back to pure Shilohs to produce the F3 generation, anticipated to happen in 2022-3. These F3 (third generation) dogs should now look and act like pure Shiloh Shepherds, being 87.5% Shiloh Shepherd and only 12.5% outcross blood. Again, the intention is for the blood to spread slowly, with only a couple pups going forward from each of the F2's matches. This would give us a number of F3 generation dogs, each of them at this point coming from different Shiloh lines, totalling roughly 15% or less of the current gene pool.
In the fourth generation the dogs are 94% Shiloh Shepherd and the only traits left from the outcross should be the healthy diversity of genes we retain and the improvement in the physical structure we intend to breed for (fewer cow hocks, stronger lower jaws, and so on). The fourth generation should mostly be in place and breeding by 2025 if all goes well. At this time the outcross should be allowed to spread somewhat freely, as the dogs should be indistinguishable from 100% Shilohs.
The ISSA's plan, then, will stretch across roughly seven years for the path of a single outcross, and that is assuming that dogs are bred promptly at the age of two years. In reality we know that several dogs may not be used until they are mature at three or even four years, so in actuality the fruits of our first outcross project may take a full decade to integrate.
In addition, the ISSA plans by the end of 2018 to be running two separate outcross plans concurrently; one for Europe and one for North America, to give breeders more options down the line and to inject more diversity into the Shiloh breed for the future. Our page detailing those plans is in progress and should be up for you to read by the end of this year, 2017.
Photos sent at three, six, and twelve months. Hands-on assessment at 12 months. Temperament testing at 12 months. All health testing completed and submitted at the appropriate time for the test in question.
Feedback is submitted to the breeder, who will enter it into the Registry via the appropriate electronic form, and send an additional copy via email or downloadable file to the Board and the Wardens for reference.
The ISSA has decided to see how the process works for the F1 generation before setting rules in place for the F2 dogs. At the very least, Breeding and potential Breeding dogs from the F2 generation will likely need to follow the same set of testing and submission guidelines as the F1.
The ISSA will release a report once a successful F4 generation has been achieved, looking back on everything it has learned from its first outcross and assessing which parts of the program were successful and which could be improved for a future outcrossing project. We'll have a while to wait for this part! ;)
We spent several months gathering all of the information on our gene pool and analyzing our population, as well as assessing several potential breeds for outcrossing to. Then, in August of 2017, our UC-Davis study concluded and our results were officially published on the UC-Davis web site.